HR: 08:00h
AN: H11E-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Transforming Information into Models: A Discussion of Uncertainty and Its Treatment
AU: * Gupta, H V
EM: hoshin.gupta@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Harshbarger Building Room 314D, Tucson, AZ 85721 United States
AB: Uncertainty and insufficiency of information are unavoidable in modeling. The treatment of uncertainty has received a surge in attention as (a) decision makers push for better quantification of the accuracy and precision of environmental model predictions, (b) interest grows in proper methods for merging information & data with models, and (c) scientists push to better represent what is (and is not) well understood about the environmental systems we study. As recognized by this session, there is a critical need to better understand and reflect the nature of ``model error'' in hydrologic prediction and decision making. This is an interesting challenge, particularly if one argues that there is no such thing as a ``true'' model. This talk will discuss the different kinds of uncertainties associated with different components of any model, and propose a structural basis for a theory of model evaluation. While it seems common to view models as explicit statements of what we (think we) know, I find it more interesting and productive to view models as explicit statements of the uncertainty in our knowledge. A philosophical shift towards this complementary approach has the potential to open new ways forward.
DE: 1805 Computational hydrology
DE: 1846 Model calibration (3333)
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 9820 Techniques applicable in three or more fields
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005