HR: 08:15h
AN: H11E-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: New Programming Environments for Uncertainty Analysis
AU: * Hill, M C
EM: mchill@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 3215 Marine St, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Poeter, E P
EM: epoeter@mines.edu
AF: Colorado School of Mines, International Ground Water Modeling Center, Department of Geological Engineering, Golden, CO 80402 United States
AU: Banta, E R
EM: erbanta@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, P.O.Box 25046 MS 413, Lakewood, CO 80225 United States
AU: Christensen, S
EM: sc@geo.au.dk
AF: University of Aarhus, Nordre Ringgade 1, Aarhus, DK-8000 Denmark
AU: Cooley, R L
EM: sandrcooley@earthlink.net
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, P.O.Box 25046 MS 413, Lakewood, CO 80225 United States
AU: Ely, D M
EM: mely@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 12-1 Pacific Ave., Suite 600, Tacoma, WA 98402 United States
AU: Babendreier, J
EM: Babendreier.Justin@epamail.epa.gov
AF: U.S. E.P.A., National Exposure Research Laboratory Ecosystems Research Division Regulatory Support Branch 960 College Station Road, Athens, GA 30605-2700 United States
AU: Leavesley, G
EM: george@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, P.O.Box 25046 MS 413, Lakewood, CO 80225 United States
AU: Tonkin, M
EM: matt@sspa.com
AF: 7. S.S. Papadopulos & Assoc., Inc, 120 Main Street, Rt. 6A, Yarmouth, MA 02675 United States
AU: Julich, R
EM: rjulich!usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 12-1 Pacific Ave., Suite 600, Tacoma, WA 98402 United States
AB: We live in a world of faster computers, better GUI's and visualization technology, increasing international cooperation made possible by new digital infrastructure, new agreements between US federal agencies (such as ISCMEM), new European Union programs (such as Harmoniqua), and greater collaboration between US university scientists through CUAHSI. These changes provide new resources for tackling the difficult job of quantifying how well our models perform. This talk introduces new programming environments that take advantage of these new developments and will change the paradigm of how we develop methods for uncertainty evaluation. For example, the programming environments provided by COSU API, JUPITER API, and Sensitivity/Optimization Toolbox provide enormous opportunities for faster and more meaningful evaluation of uncertainties. Instead of waiting years for ideas and theories to be compared in the complex circumstances of interest to resource managers, these new programming environments will expedite the process. In the new paradigm, unproductive ideas and theories will be revealed more quickly, productive ideas and theories will more quickly be used to address our increasingly difficult water resources problems. As examples, two ideas in JUPITER API applications are presented: uncertainty correction factors that account for system complexities not represented in models, and PPR and OPR statistics used to identify new data needed to reduce prediction uncertainty.
UR: http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/projects/GW_ModUncert/
DE: 3238 Prediction (3245, 4263)
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 3275 Uncertainty quantification (1873)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005