HR: 08:30h
AN: H11E-03 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Development of a Hydrologic Analysis Framework for Improved Treatment of Uncertainty
AU: * Vrugt, J A
EM: vrugt@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop T003, Los Alamos, NM 87545
AU: Robinson, B A
EM: robinson@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop T003, Los Alamos, NM 87545
AB: In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic, and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty primarily arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output, and parameter error. In this talk I will highlight recent progress in uncertainty assessment in hydrologic modeling. In particular, I will present a combined parameter and state estimation method for improved treatment of input, output, parameter and model structural error, and will demonstrate how to extend this method to include conceptual model uncertainty. The methods will be illustrated using two case studies: an operational flood forecasting model, and a groundwater solute transport model.
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1846 Model calibration (3333)
DE: 1872 Time series analysis (3270, 4277, 4475)
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005