HR: 1340h
AN: H13A-1324 [Abstracts]
TI: System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support. A Model for a Potable Water
System.
AU: * Pasqualini, D
EM: dondy@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545
United States
AU: Witkowski, M
EM: witk@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545
United States
AB:
The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology
Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure
protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical
Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary
interdependencies.
These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a
system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which
is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines
its behavior.
In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan
potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to
identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts,
when perturbations occur to the system.
The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair
to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of
an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public
health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models.
We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops
in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 1884 Water supply
DE: 1899 General or miscellaneous
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005