HR: 1340h
AN: H13A-1327    [Abstracts]
TI: How Well Does Fracture Set Characterization Reduce Uncertainty in Capture Zone Size for Wells Situated in Sedimentary Bedrock Aquifers?
AU: * West, A C
EM: awest@civil.queensu.ca
AF: Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Ellis Hall, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6 Canada
AU: Novakowski, K S
EM: kent@civil.queensu.ca
AF: Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Ellis Hall, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6 Canada
AB: Regional groundwater flow models are rife with uncertainty. The three-dimensional flux vector fields must generally be inferred using inverse modelling from sparse measurements of hydraulic head, from measurements of hydraulic parameters at a scale that is miniscule in comparison to that of the domain, and from none to a very few measurements of recharge or discharge rate. Despite the inherent uncertainty in these models they are routinely used to delineate steady-state or time-of-travel capture zones for the purpose of wellhead protection. The latter are defined as the volume of the aquifer within which released particles will arrive at the well within the specified time and their delineation requires the additional step of dividing the magnitudes of the flux vectors by the assumed porosity to arrive at the ``average linear groundwater velocity'' vector field. Since the porosity is usually assumed constant over the domain one could be forgiven for thinking that the uncertainty introduced at this step is minor in comparison to the flow model calibration step. We consider this question when the porosity in question is fracture porosity in flat-lying sedimentary bedrock. We also consider whether or not the diffusive uptake of solute into the rock matrix which lies between the source and the production well reduces or enhances the uncertainty. To evaluate the uncertainty an aquifer cross section is conceptualized as an array of horizontal, randomly-spaced, parallel-plate fractures of random aperture, with adjacent horizontal fractures connected by vertical fractures again of random spacing and aperture. The source is assumed to be a continuous concentration (i.e. a dirichlet boundary condition) representing a leaking tank or a DNAPL pool, and the receptor is a fully pentrating well located in the down-gradient direction. In this context the time-of-travel capture zone is defined as the separation distance required such that the source does not contaminate the well beyond a threshold concentration within the specified time. Aquifers are simulated by drawing the random spacings and apertures from specified distributions. Predictions are made of capture zone size assuming various degrees of knowledge of these distributions, with the parameters of the horizontal fractures being estimated using simulated hydraulic tests and a maximum likelihood estimator. The uncertainty is evaluated by calculating the variance in the capture zone size estimated in multiple realizations. The results show that despite good strategies to estimate the parameters of the horizontal fractures the uncertainty in capture zone size is enormous, mostly due to the lack of available information on vertical fractures. Also, at realistic distances (less than ten kilometers) and using realistic transmissivity distributions for the horizontal fractures the uptake of solute from fractures into matrix cannot be relied upon to protect the production well from contamination.
DE: 1831 Groundwater quality
DE: 1832 Groundwater transport
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 5104 Fracture and flow
DE: 5114 Permeability and porosity
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005