HR: 1340h
AN: H13G-1387    [Abstracts]
TI: Stochastic streamflow prediction for alluvial recharge estimation in the Santa Cruz River Southern Arizona
AU: * Shamir, E
EM: eshamir@hrc-lab.org
AF: Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Dr. #250, San Diego, CA 92130 United States
AU: Wang, J
EM: jwang@hrc-lab.org
AF: Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Dr. #250, San Diego, CA 92130 United States
AU: Graham, N E
EM: ngraham@hrc-lab.org
AF: Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Dr. #250, San Diego, CA 92130 United States
AU: Meko, D M
EM: dmeko@LTRR.arizona.edu
AF: Laboratory of Trre-Ring Research The University of Arizona, 618 N. Richey Blvd , Tucson, AZ 85716 United States
AU: Georgakakos, K P
EM: kgeorgakakos@hrc-lab.org
AF: Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Dr. #250, San Diego, CA 92130 United States
AB: A stochastic model that produces likely streamflow scenarios for multi-decadal future periods was constructed for the ephemeral Santa Cruz River at Nogales, Southern Arizona. The model reproduces hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45-year hourly precipitation record from a near by raingauge. The likely precipitation scenarios are then transformed into daily river discharge values using a conceptual infiltration excess model and a component for estimating effective areal precipitation. To maintain the large inter-annual variability of flows as prevail in Southern Arizona, the model is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer regime of flows (i.e., wet, medium or dry season). Probabilistic measures of model evaluation are used to assure the reproduction of the record statistics by the model. Long term (i.e., 100 years) realizations are generated by the model to reflect two different regimes. The first regime is that of the historic raingauge record. The second regime is a paleoclimatic reconstructed precipitation derived for this location from tree-ring data. The model and realizations provide tools for the long term planning of the scarce water resources in the region.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1839 Hydrologic scaling
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005