HR: 1340h
AN: H13G-1395    [Abstracts]
TI: Use of Operational Climate Forecasts in Reservoir Management and Operation
AU: * Arumugam, S
EM: sarumug@ncsu.edu
AF: North Carolina State University, 2501 Stinson Drive, CCampus Box 7908 Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, NC 27695 United States
AU: Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, 61 Route 9W, Columbia University, Palisades, Ny 10964 United States
AB: Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. Similarly, monthly updates of streamflow forecasts are useful in quantifying surplus and shortfall in addressing the change in streamflow potential during the season. In this study, an operational streamflow forecasts for managing the Angat Reservoir System, Philippines, is developed using the precipitation forecasts from Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) that are forced by persisted Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions. The methodology employs principal components regression (PCR) to downscale the AGCM predicted precipitation fields to monthly streamflow forecasts. By performing retrospective analyses that combines streamflow forecasts with a dynamic water allocation model, we show that use of updated climate forecasts in reservoir operation results in increased reservoir system yields in comparison to using the seasonal streamflow forecasts alone. Revising the reservoir operation strategy based on updated streamflow forecasts is particularly critical in hydropower systems, since the increased yields from reduced spillage could be effectively utilized for power generation during above-normal inflow years. Further, analyzing the system performance under different scenarios of storage and demand, we show that the utility of climate information based reservoir inflow forecasts is more pronounced for systems with low storage to demand ratio.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1857 Reservoirs (surface)
DE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology
DE: 1872 Time series analysis (3270, 4277, 4475)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005