HR: 1340h
AN: H13G-1398    [Abstracts]
TI: Seasonal Streamflow Forecast for the Yangtze River at the Three Gorges Dam, China
AU: * Xu, K
EM: joexu@nies.go.jp
AF: Watershed Management Research Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan
AU: * Xu, K
EM: joexu@nies.go.jp
AF: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 500 West 120 street, New York, NY 10027 United States
AU: Brown, C
EM: caseyb@iri.columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, Palisades, NY 10964-8000 United States
AU: Kwon, H
EM: hk2273@columbia.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 500 West 120 street, New York, NY 10027 United States
AU: Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, 500 West 120 street, New York, NY 10027 United States
AU: Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, Palisades, NY 10964-8000 United States
AU: Zhang, J
EM: zhangjiqun@yahoo.com
AF: Water Resources Management Center, Ministry of Water Resources, No.2 Lane 2, Baiguang Road, Beijing, 100053 China
AU: Hayashi, S
EM: shayashi@nies.go.jp
AF: Watershed Management Research Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Japan
AB: Water is a vital resource for human as well as the natural ecosystems. The availability of water is greatly influenced by climate conditions that vary on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. The severe flood and drought events that frequently occur during the summer monsoon have generated interest in seasonal climate forecasting. In particular, the relationship between tropical sea surface temperatures and the East Asian monsoon has been the subject of many studies in the past decade. However there are no reports of streamflow prediction using climate indices in East Asian rivers. In this study, we attempt to identify major modes of variability in global climate variables that may be used to produce seasonal forecasts of Yangtze River streamflow, which represents the inflow into the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). Streamflow at Yichang hydrological station (YHS) during the summer monsoon was analyzed for the period 1882-2003. Simple methods of statistical analysis were used to describe the relationship between summer (June-July-August (JJA)) streamflow and preceding climate variables and to evaluate predictive ability. Linear correlation maps were constructed using (March-April-May (MAM)) values (3-month ahead) to identify regions that exhibit teleconnections with streamflow at YHS. The climate indices were used in multivariate linear and quadratic regression of YHS JJA streamflow. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of the multivariate regression ranged from 0.72-0.78, showing a good agreement with the observed. From the cross-validation analysis, the quadratic regression model for JJA streamflow at YHS with the first EOFs of two SST boxes in the Eastern Indian and Western Pacific was best. The results suggested that the strong teleconnections between the streamflow and the ENSO-related sea surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, ocean precipitation, and sea level pressure should provide helpful information for improving the prediction of the long-term variations in the Yangtze River. This can provide some guidance for water management policy and planning in the river basin, especially for the TGD operation and future South to North water transfer project.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1808 Dams
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1860 Streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005