HR: 16:45h
AN: H14A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty
AU: * Brown, C
EM: caseyb@iri.columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University - Earth Institute, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AU: Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University - Earth Institute, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AU: Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
AU: Siegfried, T
EM: siegfried@ihw.baug.ethz.ch
AF: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
AB: Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of decision-making a priori to hydrologic realizations and those made a posteriori on alternative allocation mechanisms. Outcomes are evaluated in terms of water productivity, net social benefit and equity. The performance of hydro-climate prediction modeling in each allocation mechanism will be assessed. Finally, year-to-year system performance and feedback pathways are explored. In this way, the system can be adaptively managed toward equitable and efficient water use.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6334 Regional planning (1880)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005