HR: 17:00h
AN: H14A-05 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities
AU: * Schaake, J
EM: john.schaake@noaa.gov
AF: National Weather Service, 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910 United States
AU: Bradley, A
EM: allen-bradley@uiowa.edu
AF: The University of Iowa, IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering 523A C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics Laboratory , Iowa City, IA 52242 United States
AB: Ensemble forecast techniques are beginning to be used for hydrological prediction by operational hydrological services throughout the world. These techniques are attractive because they allow effects of a wide range of sources of uncertainty on hydrological forecasts to be accounted for. Not only does ensemble prediction in hydrology offer a general approach to probabilistic prediction, it offers a significant new approach to improve hydrological forecast accuracy as well. But, there are many scientific challenges that must be overcome to provide users with high quality hydrologic ensemble forecasts. A new international project the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) was started last year to organize the scientific community to meet these challenges. Its main objective is to bring the international hydrological community together with the meteorological community to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble for decisions for the benefit of public health and safety, the economy and the environment. Topics that will be addressed by the HEPEX scientific community include techniques for using weather and climate information in hydrologic prediction systems, new methods in hydrologic prediction, data assimilation issues in hydrology and hydrometeorology, verification and correction of ensemble weather and hydrologic forecasts, and better quantification of uncertainty in hydrological prediction. As pathway for addressing these topics, HEPEX will set up demonstration test bed projects and compile data sets for the intercomparison of coupled systems for atmospheric and hydrologic forecasting, and their assessment for meeting end users' needs for decision-making. Test bed projects have been proposed in North and South America, Europe, and Asia, and have a focus ranging from short-range flood forecasting to seasonal predictions for water supply. For example, within the United States, ongoing activities in seasonal prediction as part of the GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) will contribute to the HEPEX effort. This presentation reports on the outcomes from the second international HEPEX workshop at NCAR in July, as well as planned future activities.
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1840 Hydrometeorology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005