HR: 17:45h
AN: H14A-08 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Multi-attribute season ahead probabilistic streamflow forecasts and their application
AU: * Lall, U
EM: ula2@columbia.edu
AF: Columbia University, Dept of Earth & Environmental Eng, 918 Mudd, 500 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 United States
AB: A hierarchy of methods for developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts using large scale climate information is reviewed from the general perspective of modeling multi-scale dynamics. In the process, the prospects of simultaneously forecasting multiple statistics of streamflow, e.g., seasonal total, monthly flows, 3-day annual maximum flow, 7-day low flow, in a consistent way are discussed. The role of low frequency climatic modulation of high frequency rainfall and streamflow phenomena is highlighted by example. An argument is made that effective water resource management needs the capability to forecast all of these attributes in a regularly updated manner, rather than improvements in just one or two of these attributes. An example is used to illustrate this point.
DE: 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 6334 Regional planning (1880)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005