HR: 11:35h
AN: H32B-06 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Enhancing Water Supply Reliability Through Improved Predictive Capacity and Response
AU: * Jacobs, K
EM: kjacobs@ag.arizona.edu
AF: The University of Arizona, Soil, Water and Environmental Science, Tucson, AZ 85721 United States
AU: Meko, D
EM: dmeko@ltrr.arizona.edu
AF: The University of Arizona, Tree RIng Laboratory, Tucson, AZ 85721 United States
AU: Nijssen, B
EM: nijssen@u.arizona.edu
AF: The University of Arizona, Civil Engineering and Hydrology and Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 United States
AU: Colby, B
EM: bcolby@ag.arizona.edu
AF: The University of Arizona, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Tucson, AZ 85721 United States
AB: This project is a multi-pronged approach to enhancing water supply reliability from the Colorado River and encouraging dissemination of new scientific information into the water management process. The science of linking paleoclimatology and climate modeling to stream flow predictions and river system operational models is advancing rapidly. However, there is a time lag between scientific advances and their use by water managers in supply planning and reservoir operations. We have assessed current Bureau of Reclamation use of climate information in river modeling and management and are identifying strategies to better utilize paleoclimatology, climate forecasts and climate change predictions to improve water supply predictive capacity for the lower Colorado River and the Central Arizona Project. Our research questions, which were initially based on an assessment of stakeholder needs, include extending the paleoclimatic record and doing statistical reanalysis of existing tree ring data to expand our understanding of past water supply variability and drought; evaluating the potential to input new types of information, such as precipitation data downscaled from global climate models, into the CRSS model; identifying state and federal management tools to translate improved predictive capacity into enhanced supply reliability for water users; and developing practical supply reliability strategies for use by water users and managers at various scales. Project staffare participating in Bureau of Reclamation shortage sharing activities and distributing a quarterly newsletter on drought status for key stakeholders as part of this project.
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005