HR: 1340h
AN: H33B-1392    [Abstracts]
TI: Monthly Precipitation Forecast for the Central Highland, Vietnam
AU: * Rosbjerg, D
EM: dr@er.dtu.dk
AF: Institute of Environment & Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, DK-2800 Denmark
AU: Nguyen, T D
EM: tdn@er.dtu.dk
AF: Institute of Environment & Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, DK-2800 Denmark
AU: Uvo, C
EM: Cintia.Uvo@tvrl.lth.se
AF: Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, SE-221 00 Sweden
AB: The monsoon governs the life in Vietnam. A better forecast of the monthly summer monsoon rainfall over the Vietnamese central highland would contribute significantly to water resources planning and management in terms of, e.g., improved reservoir operation, agricultural practice and, in particular, the mitigation of droughts over the region. Statistical techniques have been used to analyse the temporal and spatial variability in precipitation and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean in order to identify the ability of the SST to forecast the monthly precipitation over the Vietnamese central highland during the rainy season, i.e. from April to November. In this study, the multivariate technique known as Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is used to forecast monthly precipitation over the Vietnamese central highland based on preceding SSTs in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Using the monthly SST in either the Pacific or the Indian Ocean or a combination of both oceans as predictor, a precipitation forecast can be obtained from one to three months in advance. The forecasting skills, however, vary significantly for the different months during the rainy season. It seems that the SST in equatorial eastern Pacific, representative of the ENSO phenomenon, is a key factor for the forecasting of monthly rainfall over the Vietnamese central highland.
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1840 Hydrometeorology
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005