HR: 1340h
AN: H43B-0504    [Abstracts]
TI: Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Scenarios for the Southern Alps
AU: * Maran, S
EM: maran@cesi.it
AF: CESI, via Rubattino 54, Milano, 20134 Italy
AU: Barontini, S
EM: barontini@ing.unibs.it
AF: Universit… di Brescia, Dept. Civil Engineering, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy
AU: Grossi, G
EM: grossig@smtp.ing.unibs.it
AF: Universit… di Brescia, Dept. Civil Engineering, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy
AU: Ranzi, R
EM: ranzi@ing.unibs.it
AF: Universit… di Brescia, Dept. Civil Engineering, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123 Italy
AU: Quaglia, G
EM: gquaglia@cesi.it
AF: CESI, via Rubattino 54, Milano, 20134 Italy
AB: Starting from results of Global Circulation Models, IPCC-based scenarios for the XXI century were selected and the expected time series for surface temperature and precipitation were extracted together with model results for the second half of the XX century for two regions of the southern Alps, in Italy. Both monthly and daily data were analysed. Monthly data were used to describe the variability of climatic data in terms of trend, and characteristic frequencies were singled out. Comparisons were made among results of different models and, for past data, experimental records collected in meteorological stations located in Northern Italy. The aim was to derive the expected trends in two watersheds where hydropower is well developed. From daily data, statistics on rainy events were derived and they were compared to experimental data, for model's verification. These results were used in a hydrological model in order to assess the expected changes of runoff regimes in the two watersheds. The model, of the semi-distributed and conceptual type, assumes the projected meteorological data as forcing for the XXI century. It also assumes that land use changes (snow and forest cover) will adapt to climate changes. In the area, in fact, an increase of the timberline altitude is already being observed, since the end of the Little Ice Age. Using detailed knowledge of characteristics of the hydropower plants and their past operation rules, and of irrigation uses downstream, the influence of climate change on hydropower production and water resources availability for irrigation and human use was extrapolated for the 21st century in these two representative basins.
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1872 Time series analysis (3270, 4277, 4475)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005