HR: 15:25h
AN: H43I-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Projected Changes in Precipitation Variability and Distribution Due to Land Cover Change in East Africa
AU: * Moore, N J
EM: moorena@msu.edu
AF: Department of Geography Michigan State University, CLIP Lab, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823 United States
AU: Lofgren, B M
EM: Brent.Lofgren@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 United States
AU: Andresen, J A
EM: andresen@msu.edu
AF: Department of Geography Michigan State University, CLIP Lab, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823 United States
AU: Pijanowski, B C
EM: bpijanow@purdue.edu
AF: Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Purdue University, 203 Forest Bldg, West Lafayette, IN 47907 United States
AU: Olson, J M
EM: olsonjj@msu.edu
AF: Department of Geography Michigan State University, CLIP Lab, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823 United States
AB: The Climate-Land Interactions Project (CLIP) is studying climate impacts coupled to land use/land cover (LULC) change in East Africa. Accompanying dramatic shifts in population distribution and economic drivers in eastern Africa are changes in global climate forcings; e.g. the melting of Kilimanjaro's glaciers, shifts in the Indian Ocean Dipole periodicity, and greater drought frequency. These socioeconomic factors can alter the surface energy balance, thereby influencing climate, and climate shifts can in turn influence patterns and practices in agriculture that will affect LULC. Here we present preliminary results from regional climate model simulations under current (2000-2010) and future (2040-2050) climate conditions driven by boundary conditions from NCAR's CCSM model (using scenario A1B), with land cover prognosed by a land transformation model. Prognosed land cover is driven by projected socioeconomic forces ranging from urban migration to agricultural expansion into marginal lands. We first simulate only future (2040-2050) land cover with current (2000-2010) boundary conditions, then current land cover with future CCSM boundary conditions, then finally both future and cover and boundary conditions. In this way, we will be able to observe effects solely from land cover change, effects solely from climate change, and the synergistic effects of both combined.
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
DE: 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843)
DE: 9305 Africa
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005