HR: 16:00h
AN: H44B-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Impacts of Land Use and Land-Cover Change in Amazonia on the Regional and Global Water Cycle
AU: * Avissar, R
EM: avissar@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AU: Ramos da Silva, R
EM: renato@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AU: Werth, D
EM: werth@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 123 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 United States
AB: Regional and global climate models are used in conjunction with socio-economic scenarios of land use / land-cover change in the Amazon basin, to estimate potential changes in the water cycle inside and outside of the basin. Four ensembles of six realizations, twelve years each, are produced with the NASA-GISS Global Climate Model (GCM): (1) a "current land cover" ensemble, which also serves as the "control" ensemble; (2) a "scenario for 2030" ensemble; (3) a "scenario for 2050" ensemble; and (4) a "total deforestation" ensemble that simulates the land cover in the Amazon basin after all the tropical forest has been eliminated. In addition, The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used at a high resolution (20-km grid size) and very-high resolution (1-km grid size) over the Amazon basin and using the same four land-cover scenarios but with the NCEP reanalysis for four different years (wet - 1997, dry - 1998, and two "normal" years, 1999 and 2000, that have similar domain-average precipitation but different spatial distributions) forcing its lateral boundaries. Thus, the combined impacts of deforestation and El Nino and La Nina years are also explored as part of this numerical experiment. The combination of these different simulations reveals significant impact of deforestation on the regional and global water cycle, including significant teleconnection outside of the Amazon basin.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1840 Hydrometeorology
DE: 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 3322)
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
DE: 1878 Water/energy interactions (0495)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005