HR: 08:20h
AN: H51I-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: 20th- and 21st-Century Changes in Streamflow Associated With Global Warming
AU: * Milly, P
EM: cmilly@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, GFDL/NOAA P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542 United States
AU: Dunne, K A
EM: kadunne@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, GFDL/NOAA P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542 United States
AU: Vecchia, A V
EM: avecchia@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 821 E. Interstate Ave., Bismarck, ND 58503-1199 United States
AB: Some basic thermodynamic relations suggest that global warming will have consequences for the global water cycle. Here we consider the possible manifestations of 20th- and 21st-century warming on the global distribution of mean annual streamflow. Using long-term observations at hundreds of stream gages worldwide, we evaluate the quality of 20th-century simulations of 21 climate models whose results were contributed for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our evaluation suggests that the models have some predictive value for regional streamflow analysis. Turning to the 21st-century simulations, we show that most models agree on the direction (positive or negative) of changes in streamflow to be expected in many regions.
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005