HR: 09:15h
AN: H51I-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Climate Change Projection on Italian Alpine Region
AU: * Faggian, P
EM: faggian@cesi.it
AF: CESI, via Rubattino, 54, Milan, 20134 Italy
AB: The analysis of surface temperature and total precipitation (monthly mean) in the latest set IPCC AOGCM simulations over the Mediterranean Area have been investigated to have projections of future climate change and its impacts on hydrologic cycle on Italian Alpine Region. At first an analysis of global climate model performances in reproducing observed monthly data has been done: 20C3M simulations have been considered to compare each IPCC model against time series meteorological North-Italy observations from 1951 to 2000. RMS error, BIAS, correlation coefficient have been calculated to have a first evaluation of model performances at annual and seasonal scales on our area. The same error indexes have been calculated considering also orographic information to distinguish mountain grid points from flat ones. Then for each model the "model mean climate", based on mean values on the 1981-2000 period, has been calculated and climate change in XXI century have been evaluate considering three different SRES scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). For each SRES scenario, the future climate change projection of each model has been calculated for twenty years periods, distinguishing also seasonal means. Then, considering the different ability of the global climate models to describe the XX century, some projections of future climate change have been calculated considering an ensemble averaging method.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005