HR: 1340h
AN: IN23B-1212    [Abstracts]
TI: SCEC/CME CyberShake: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using 3D Seismic Waveform Modeling
AU: Callaghan, S
EM: scottcal@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: * Maechling, P J
EM: maechlin@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Cui, Y
EM: yfcui@sdsc.edu
AF: San Diego Supercomputer Center, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093 United States
AU: Faerman, M
EM: mfaerman@sdsc.edu
AF: San Diego Supercomputer Center, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093 United States
AU: Field, E
EM: field@usgs.gov
AF: U.S.G.S. Pasadena Office, 1200 E. California Blvd, Pasadena, CA 91125 United States
AU: Graves, R
EM: Robert_Graves@URSCorp.com
AF: URS Corporation, 566 El Dorado St, 2nd floor, Pasadena, CA 91101 United States
AU: Gupta, N
EM: niting@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Gupta, V
EM: vgupta@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Jordan, T H
EM: tjordan@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Kesselman, C
EM: carl@isi.edu
AF: USC Information Sciences Institute, 4676 Admiralty Way, Suite 1001, Marina del Rey, CA 90292
AU: Mehta, G
EM: gmehta@isi.edu
AF: USC Information Sciences Institute, 4676 Admiralty Way, Suite 1001, Marina del Rey, CA 90292
AU: Okaya, D
EM: okaya@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Vahi, K
EM: vahi@isi.edu
AF: USC Information Sciences Institute, 4676 Admiralty Way, Suite 1001, Marina del Rey, CA 90292
AU: Zhao, L
EM: zhaol@usc.edu
AF: University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Zumberge Hall of Science, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AB: Researchers on the SCEC Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME) Project are calculating Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves for several sites in the Los Angeles area. The hazard curves calculated in this study use Intensity Measure Relationships (IMRs) based on 3D ground motion simulations rather than on attenuation relationships. State-of-the-art Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is currently conducted using IMRs that use empirically-based attenuation relationships. These attenuation relationships represent relatively simple analytical models based on the regression of observed data. However, it is widely believed that significant improvements in SHA will rely on the use of more physics-based, waveform modeling. In fact, a more physics-based approach to PSHA was endorsed in a recent assessment of earthquake science by National Research Council (2003). In order to introduce the use of 3D seismic waveform modeling into PSHA hazard curve calculations, the SCEC/CME CyberShake group is integrating state-of-the-art PSHA software tools (OpenSHA), SCEC-developed geophysical models (SCEC CVM3.0), validated anelastic wave modeling (AWM) software, and state-of-the-art computational technologies including high performance computing and grid-based scientific workflows in an effort to develop an OpenSHA-compatible 3D waveform-based IMR component. This will allow researchers to combine a new class of waveform-based IMRs with the large number of existing PSHA components, such as Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERF's), that are currently implemented in the OpenSHA system. To calculate a probabilistic hazard curve for a site of interest, we use the OpenSHA implementation of the NSHMP-2002 ERF and identify all ruptures within 200km of the site of interest. For each of these ruptures, we convert the NSHMP-2002 rupture definition into one, or more, Ruptures with Slip Time History (Rupture Variations) using newly developed Rupture Generator software. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site using well-validated AWM software together with the SCEC CVM3.0 3D velocity model. Then, using a reciprocity-based approach, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each Rupture Variation. The resulting suite of synthetics is processed to extract peak intensity measures of interest (such as spectral acceleration). The peak intensity measures are combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. The CyberShake calculations are performed on high performance computing systems including multiple TeraGrid sites (currently SDSC and NCSA), and at USCs High Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC) center. The CyberShake job submission and data management uses a grid-based scientific workflow system based on the Virtual Data System (VDS) to manage the job scheduling and data management requirements of the work.
UR: http://www.scec.org/CyberShake
DE: 0594 Instruments and techniques
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7290 Computational seismology
SC: Earth and Space Science Informatics [IN]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005