HR: 09:25h
AN: NG21A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Limits to statistical atmospheric predictability
AU: * Kleeman, R
EM: kleeman@cims.nyu.edu
AF: Courant Institute NYU, 251 Mercer Street, New York, NY 10012 United States
AB: Recently the author and coworkers have developed a set of tools from information theory for rigorously examining ensemble or statistical predictability. These have been applied to the mid-latitude athmospheric system and reveal that there is a finite limit to statistical predictabilty of order one month. Beyond this limit initial conditions have no influence at all on ensemble variables. Here we extend these results to the more general global case. In addition we examine the factors responsible for the variation in predictability with initial conditions. In general certain predictions have more utility than others and this can be due to either the flow instability present in the initial conditions or else the amplitude of deviations from the mean. We determine which is more important for weather predictions.
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 3238 Prediction (3245, 4263)
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 4263 Ocean predictability and prediction (3238)
DE: 4490 Turbulence (3379, 4568, 7863)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005