HR: 11:25h
AN: NG22A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Non-linear Feedbacks in the Future Hydrologic Cycle
AU: * Erickson, D J
EM: ericksondj@ornl.gov
AF: ORNL, 1 Bethel Valley Rd, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 United States
AU: Branstetter, M
EM: branstetterm@ornl.gov
AF: ORNL, 1 Bethel Valley Rd, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 United States
AU: Oglesby, R J
EM: robert.j.oglesby@nasa.gov
AF: NASA/MSFC, 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville, AL 35805 United States
AB: Analysis of an ensemble of IPCC scenario simulations using the Community Climate System Model, version 3, indicate non-linear feedbacks present in the hydrologic cycle. Five members of an SRES A2 scenario are analyzed globally and regionally in an attempt to detect the non-linearity of the water cycle feedbacks. Both the surface and subsurface runoff in the model as well as river discharge into the ocean are examined. Rainfall-runoff relationships are analyzed to determine changes in the non-linear patterns between the near future (2000-2015) time frame and later (2085-2100) time frame. Non-linear relationships between sea surface temperature and various hydrologic fields such as latent heat flux, precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture are also investigated. We concentrate our analysis on how the strength of various feedbacks in the climate system shift over the next 100 years and how reliable are future climate forecasts. In particular, feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation patterns will be emphasized.
DE: 1218 Mass balance (0762, 1223, 1631, 1836, 1843, 3010, 3322, 4532)
DE: 1225 Global change from geodesy (1222, 1622, 1630, 1641, 1645, 4556)
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 3337 Global climate models (1626, 4928)
DE: 4928 Global climate models (1626, 3337)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005