HR: 1340h
AN: NG23C-0101    [Abstracts]
TI: Verification and Revision of the Space Environment Center's Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Model AU: * Balch, C C
EM: christopher.balch@noaa.gov
AF: Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway , Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AB: An important aspect of space weather forecasts is the prediction of solar energetic particles. Such forecasts are needed to support human spaceflight operations, spacecraft operations which are susceptible to single event upsets, and human activities dependent on HF communication in the polar cap regions, such as transpolar airline flights. At the current time there is no capability for physics based modeling to predict these events. Consequently, in order for NOAA's Space Environment Center to fulfill its mission to provide space weather forecasts, current techniques rely on statistical analysis of historical events. The prediction model currently in operation was implemented in 1999 and is based on data that was available at that time. In this study we evaluate the performance of the model for events from 1986 to 2004, almost two solar cycles. We also investigate revisions to the model based on insight gained from the addition of more recent events and advances in theoretical understanding.
DE: 0550 Model verification and validation
DE: 7514 Energetic particles (2114)
DE: 7900 SPACE WEATHER
DE: 7924 Forecasting (2722)
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005