HR: 13:55h
AN: OS33D-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Reducing the Uncertainty in Projections of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation for the 21st century
AU: Latif, M
EM: mlatif@ifm-geomar.de
AF: Leibniz Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Duesternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24103 Germany
AU: Schmittner, A
EM: aschmittner@coas.oregonstate.edu
AF: College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 Ocean Admin Bldg, Corvallis, OR 97331 United States
AU: * Schneider, B
EM: bschneider@ifm-geomar.de
AF: Leibniz Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Duesternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24103 Germany
AB: Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) for the 21st century when forced by increased levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in the response to forcing. In order to reduce the model uncertainties a weighting procedure is applied that considers the skill of each model in simulating the climatological hydrographic properties. This procedure yields an `estimate' for the evolution of the North Atlantic THC during the 21st century by taking into account a measure of model quality when computing the ensemble mean. The analysis predicts a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic THC by about 30% until 2100.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 4513 Decadal ocean variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 4215)
DE: 4532 General circulation (1218, 1222)
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005