HR: 09:15h
AN: PP51G-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Methodological Issues in Multiproxy Reconstructions
AU: * McIntyre, S G
EM: stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca
AF: N/A, 512 - 120 Adelaide St West, Toronto, ON M5H 1T1 Canada
AB: We review some important and under-discussed methodological issues in multiproxy reconstructions, applying insights from recent statistical and econometric studies and considering examples in the recent multiproxy literature. Issues include: 1) 'spurious' (in a statistical sense) relationships between highly autocorrelated series, considering both regression and scaling methodologies. We discuss problems arising from proxies potentially affected by nonclimatic trends or factors and the related question of the robustness of multiproxy methods. 2) series selection and the potential problem of data mining. We show examples where variance attenuation arises without regression. The effect can be demonstrated when series are selected from a menu of persistent red noise examples and then averaged together. 3) non-linear and especially non-monotonic relationships with temperature. Each issue will be related to the problem of calculating confidence intervals.
UR: http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/agu2005.htm
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)
DE: 4920 Dendrochronology
SC: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology [PP]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005