HR: 1020h
AN: PP52A-0653    [Abstracts]
TI: Precipitation scenarios using dendroclimatic, historical and GCM based precipitation records
AU: * Lapp, S
EM: lappsl@uleth.ca
AF: Geography/Environmental Science, University of Lethbridge 4401 University DR, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Sauchyn, D
EM: sauchyn@uregina.ca
AF: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Suite 150-10 Research Dr. , Regina, SK S4S 7J7 Canada
AU: Byrne, J
EM: byrne@uleth.ca
AF: Geography/Environmental Science, University of Lethbridge 4401 University DR, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AU: Kienzle, S
EM: stefan.kienzle@uleth.ca
AF: Geography/Environmental Science, University of Lethbridge 4401 University DR, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4 Canada
AB: Climate change will have a substantial impact on regional precipitation, but the magnitude of change due to human induced climate change is difficult to quantify. Proxy data from tree ring analyses carried out in western North America has proven valuable to quantify impacts of natural climate variation. These proxy records allow for better predictions of the expected precipitation changes under GHG warming. Potential changes in seasonal and annual precipitation for a series of climate stations in Alberta and Montana are analyzed using proxy data from dendroclimatic analyses, historical and GCM precipitation data. Previous work by the authors has defined dendroclimatic precipitation records and historic and future precipitation scenarios. However, these have not been linked in a systematic way. This work describes ongoing efforts to define the linkages between the three types of precipitation time series, with the key objectives being to define: 1) The relationship between paleo and historic precipitation records, specifically to define extreme events; 2) comparing a series of GCM precipitation times series with historical data to determine the best fit model; 3) a complete precipitation time series for the study region spanning from the earliest paleo records through the middle of this century.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
DE: 4920 Dendrochronology
SC: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology [PP]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005