HR: 1340h
AN: S23A-0223 [Abstracts]
TI: Building Loss Estimation for Earthquake Insurance Pricing
AU: * Durukal, E
EM: durukal@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AU: Erdik, M
EM: erdik@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AU: Sesetyan, K
EM: karin@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AU: Demircioglu, M B
EM: betul.demircioglu@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AU: Fahjan, Y
EM: fahjan@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AU: Siyahi, B
EM: bilge.siyahi@boun.edu.tr
AF: Bogazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research
Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering,
Cengelkoy, Istanbul, 34684
Turkey
AB:
After the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey several changes in the insurance sector took place. A compulsory earthquake
insurance scheme was introduced by the government. The reinsurance companies increased their rates. Some even supended
operations in the market. And, most important, the insurance companies realized the importance of portfolio analysis in
shaping their future market strategies.
The paper describes an earthquake loss assessment
methodology that can be used for insurance pricing and portfolio loss estimation that is based on our work esperience in the
insurance market. The basic ingredients are probabilistic and deterministic regional site dependent earthquake hazard,
regional building inventory (and/or portfolio), building vulnerabilities associated with typical construction systems in
Turkey and estimations of
building replacement costs for different damage levels. Probable maximum and average annualized losses are estimated as the
result of analysis. There is a two-level earthquake insurance system in Turkey, the effect of which is incorporated in the
algorithm: the national compulsory earthquake insurance scheme and the private earthquake
insurance system. To buy private insurance one has to be covered by the national system, that has limited coverage. As a
demonstration of the methodology we look at the case of Istanbul and use its building inventory data instead of a portfolio.
A state-of-the-art time depent earthquake hazard model that portrays the increased earthquake expectancies in Istanbul is
used. Intensity and spectral displacement based vulnerability relationships are incorporated in the analysis. In particular
we look at the uncertainty in the loss estimations that arise from the vulnerability relationships, and at the effect of the
implemented repair cost ratios.
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005