HR: 14:05h
AN: S23C-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Earthquake interdependence and insurance loss modeling
AU: * Muir Wood, R
EM: robertm@rms.com
AF: Risk Management Solutions, Peninsular House, 30 Monument Street, London, EC3R 8HB United Kingdom
AB: Probabilistic Catastrophe loss modeling generally assumes that earthquakes are independent events and occur far enough apart in time that damage from one event is fully restituted before another earthquake occurs. While time dependence and cascade fault rupturing are today standard elements of the earthquake hazard engine, in the next generation of Catastrophe loss models one can expect to find a more comprehensive range of earthquake interdependence represented in a full simulation modeling environment. Such behavior includes the incorporation of the ways in which earthquakes relate one to another in both space and time (including foreshock, aftershock and triggered mainshock distinctions) and the damage that can be predicted from overlapping damage fields as related to the length of time for reconstruction that has elapsed between events. For insurance purposes losses are framed by the 168 hour clause for classifying losses as falling within the same `event' for reinsurance recoveries as well as the annual insurance contract. The understanding of the ways in which stress changes associated with fault rupture affect the probabilities of earthquakes on surrounding faults has also expanded the predictability of potential earthquake sequences as well as highlighted the potential to identify locations where, for some time window, risk can be discounted. While it can be illuminating to explore the loss and insurance implications of the patterns of historical earthquake occurrence seen historically along the Nankaido subduction zone of Southern Japan, in New Madrid from 1811-1812, or Nevada in 1954, the sequences to be expected in the future are unlikely to have historical precedent in the region in which they form.
UR: http://www.rms.com/
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005