HR: 08:00h
AN: S41D-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Overview of the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM)
AU: * Field, E H
EM: field@usgs.gov
AF: United States Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, CA 91106-3212 United States
AB: It is generally understood that improvements in seismic-hazard analysis (SHA) will require a more physics-based approach to modeling, and that proper SHA requires that all viable models be included in the analysis. To meet these challenges, the Southern California Earthquake Center has had a working group for the development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM; http://www.RELM.org). The goal has been to develop a variety of viable, earthquake-rupture forecast models (rather than one consensus model), to formally test each against available geophysical observations, and to evaluate the seismic hazard implications. The models that have been developed range from simple Poisson models (e.g., based on smoothed historical seismicity), to more physics-based earthquake simulators that track stress changes throughout the system. This presentation will include a sampling of models that reflect salient differences in forecast approaches, an overview of the formal model testing and hazard evaluation, and a frank discussion of issues associated with a project of this nature.
UR: http://www.relm.org
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005