HR: 09:15h
AN: S41D-06 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Long-Term Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Italy
AU: * Marzocchi, W
EM: marzocchi@bo.ingv.it
AF: INGV - Bologna, Via D. Creti 12, Bologna, 40128 Italy
AU: Faenza, L
EM: faenza@bo.ingv.it
AF: INGV - Milano, c/o INGV - Via D. Creti 12, Bologna, 40128 Italy
AB: Recently, we have published a web page (http://www.bo.ingv.it/~earthquake/ITALY/forecsting/M5.5+/) reporting the probability of large earthquakes in Italy. Specifically, we report two probability maps for the occurrence of next large events with M 5.5+ in Italy (target events) for the next 10 years. The two maps are calculated by using the same statistical procedure applied to a seismotectonic zonation and to a regular grid. The method is based on the non-parametric proportional hazard model (see Faenza et al., 2003; Cinti et al., 2004), and it characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes, by using the distribution of past large earthquakes and tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatio-temporal variability. The application to the Italian earthquake catalog has shown that the probability of occurrence of large earthquake is time dependent, being clustered in time. For this reason, both probability maps are updated every 1st of January and after the occurrence of a new target event. The model assigns a probability (or a probability for unit area) to any possible target event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude; this allows a rigorous forward test for the maps to be established, and possible comparison with other competitive models in the RELM perspective to be made.
DE: 0550 Model verification and validation
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005