HR: 09:30h
AN: S41D-07    [Abstracts]
TI: USGS Online Short-term Hazard Maps: Experiences in the First Year of Implementation
AU: * Gerstenberger, M C
EM: mattg@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave., Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AU: Jones, L M
S41D-07 AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave., Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AB: In May of 2005, following review by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, the USGS launched a website that displays the probability of experiencing Modified Mercalli Intensity VI in the next 24 hours. With a forecast based on a relatively simple application of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and the modified Omori law, the maps are primarily aimed at providing information related to aftershock hazard. Initial response to the system has been mostly positive but has required an effort toward public education. Particularly, it has been difficult to communicate the important difference between a probabilistic forecast and a binary earthquake "prediction". Even with the familiar use of probabilities in weather maps and recent use of terms such as Modified Mercalli Intensity, these, and other terms, are often misunderstood by the media and public. Additionally, the fact that our methodology is not targeted at large independent events has sometimes been difficult to convey to scientists as well as the public. Initial interest in the webpages has been high with greater than 700,000 individual visits between going live in late May, 2005 and the end of June, 2005. This accounts for more than 1/3 of the visits to the USGS-Pasadena webpages in that period. Visits have declined through July and August, but individual daily visits average around 3,000/day.
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005