HR: 10:45h
AN: S42B-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: The Working Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities
AU: * Field, E H
EM: field@usgs.gov
AF: United States Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, CA 91106-3212 United States
AB: The most official time-dependent earthquake forecasts for any region in the United States have been the Working Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities (1988, 1989, 1995, and 2002). This presentation will give an overview of each of these efforts, including basic model assumptions, innovations, implications, and some controversies that ensued. Challenges and potential issues in a newly formed Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities will also be discussed. One goal of this new effort is to provide statewide model that can be used by the California Earthquake Authority in setting earthquake insurance rates. This potential use means a forecast duration of one to five years is desirable (as opposed to the 30-year duration of previous working groups), which, combined with the fact that smaller earthquakes can cause significant losses, means that aftershocks and earthquake triggering in general must be considered carefully. Other potential innovations in the new effort include: 1) the inclusion of GPS constraints by using kinematically consistent deformation models; 2) abandoning the strict segmentation paradigm and allowing fault-to-fault ruptures; 3) a more systematic approach to using paleoseismic data; and 4) having the model exist as an adaptable and extensible entity where modifications can be made in real time as events unfold.
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7221 Paleoseismology (8036)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005