HR: 1340h
AN: S43B-1072    [Abstracts]
TI: Real time forecasts through physical and stochastic models of earthquake clustering
AU: * Murru, M
EM: murru@ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00142, Rome, 00142 Italy
AU: Console, R
EM: console@ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00142, Rome, 00142 Italy
AU: Catalli, F
EM: catalli@ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00142, Rome, 00142 Italy
AU: Falcone, G
EM: gfalcone@unime.it
AF: Department of Earth Science, University of Messina , 98166, Messina, Italy, Salita Sperone, 31, Messina, 98166 Italy
AB: The phenomenon of earthquake interaction has become a popular subject of study because it can shed light on the physical processes leading to earthquakes, and because it has a potential value for short-term earthquake forecast and hazard mitigation. In this study we start from a purely stochastic approach known as the so-called epidemic model (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations. Then we build up an approach by which this model and the rate-and-state constitutive law introduced by Dieterich in the `90s have been merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian model through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity. The models are suitable for real-time forecast of the seismic activity. In the context of the low-magnitude Italian seismicity recorded from 1987 to 2005, the new model incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not better than the purely stochastic model. Nevertheless, it has the advantage of needing a smaller number of free parameters and providing new interesting insights on the physics of the seismogenic process.
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
DE: 7260 Theory
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005