HR: 1340h
AN: S43B-1074    [Abstracts]
TI: T-RELM: Testing Center for Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasts
AU: * Schorlemmer, D
EM: danijel@sed.ethz.ch
AF: ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service Schafmattstr. 30, Zurich, 8093 Switzerland
AU: Gerstenberger, M C
EM: mattg@gps.caltech.edu
AF: USGS Pasadena, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AU: Wiemer, S
EM: stefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch
AF: ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service Schafmattstr. 30, Zurich, 8093 Switzerland
AU: Field, E H
EM: field@usgs.gov
AF: USGS Pasadena, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AU: Jones, L
EM: jones@usgs.gov
AF: USGS Pasadena, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91106 United States
AU: Jackson, D D
EM: djackson@ucla.edu
AF: UCLA, UCLA Dept. Earth and Space Sciences 595 Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AB: Testing probabilistic earthquake models is becoming an increasingly important task in seismology. Numerous forecast models exist, but lack rigorous testing against each other in order to determine their comparative performances. In general, models have only been tested pseudo-prospectively against either an assumed null hypotheses or the data. Different characteristics of models make model comparisons difficult. As part of the regional earthquake likelihood model (RELM) initiative of SCEC, a group of modelers has agreed to test their models prospectively using a community agreed upon set of rules. We are currently establishing a central testing center at ETH and we have implemented all necessary procedures for truly prospective tests of different sets of models. We distinguish between short-term models, updating their forecasts daily, and quasi-stationary models, issuing their forecast on a yearly basis. These testing classes have been defined based on both scientific and public interests. In establishing a testing center, a number of decisions needed to be taken, such as: What area needs to be covered by the forecast? Which requirements has a viable model to meet? Do modelers have access to their code? What data is a forecast tested against: Real time, or final corrected data? Which authorized data sources can a model use? In this presentation, we describe the scientific, administrative and societal implications of setting up T-RELM, the testing effort within the RELM framework. The prescribed testing region is California, and we still highly encourage new models to participate in the upcoming real time test.
DE: 7200 SEISMOLOGY
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
DE: 7290 Computational seismology
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005