HR: 1340h
AN: S53A-1084    [Abstracts]
TI: Detection of Temporally and Spatially Limited Periodic Earthquake Recurrence in Synthetic Seismic Records
AU: * Zielke, O
EM: olaf.zielke@asu.edu
AF: Department of Geological Sciences, Arizona State University, George Bateman Physical Science Complex, Tempe, AZ 85287-1404 United States
AU: Arrowsmith, R J
EM: ramon.arrowsmith@asu.edu
AF: Department of Geological Sciences, Arizona State University, George Bateman Physical Science Complex, Tempe, AZ 85287-1404 United States
AB: The nonlinear dynamics of fault behavior are dominated by complex interactions among the multiple processes controlling the system. For example, temporal and spatial variations in pore pressure, healing effects, and stress transfer cause significant heterogeneities in fault properties and the stress-field at the sub-fault level. Numerical and laboratory fault models show that the interaction of large systems of fault elements causes the entire system to develop into a state of self-organized criticality. Once in this state, small perturbations of the system may result in chain reactions (i.e., earthquakes) which can affect any number of fault segments. This sensitivity to small perturbations is strong evidence for chaotic fault behavior, which implies that exact event prediction is not possible. However, earthquake prediction with a useful accuracy is nevertheless possible. Studies of other natural chaotic systems have shown that they may enter states of metastability, in which the system's behavior is predictable. Applying this concept to earthquake faults, these windows of metastable behavior should be characterized by periodic earthquake recurrence. The observed periodicity of the Parkfield, CA (M= 6) events may resemble such a window of metastability. I am statistically analyzing numerically generated seismic records to study these phases of periodic behavior. In this preliminary study, seismic records were generated using a model introduced by Nakanishi [Phys. Rev. A, 43, 6613-6621, 1991]. It consists of a one-dimensional chain of blocks (interconnected by springs) with a relaxation function that mimics velocity-weakened frictional behavior. The earthquakes occurring in this model show generally a power-law frequency-size distribution. However, for large events the distribution has a shoulder where the frequency of events is higher than expected from the power law. I have analyzed time-series of single block motions within the system. These time-series include noticeable periodicity during certain intervals in an otherwise aperiodic record. The observed periodic signal is not equally distributed over the range of offsets but shows a multi-modal distribution with increased periodicity for the smallest events and for large events that show a specific offset. These large events also form a shoulder in the frequency-size distribution. Apparently, the model exhibits characteristic earthquakes (defined by similar coseismic slip) that occur more frequently than expected from a power law distribution, and also are significantly more periodic. The wavelength of the periodic signal generally equals the minimum loading time, which is related to the loading velocity and the amount of coseismic slip (i.e., stress drop). No significant event occurs between the characteristic events as long as the system stays in a window of periodic behavior. Within the windows of periodic behavior, earthquake prediction is straightforward. Therefore, recognition of these windows not only in synthetic data but also in real seismic records, may improve the intra-window forecast of earthquakes. Further studies will attempt to determine the characteristics of onset, duration, and end of these windows of periodic earthquake recurrence. Only the motion of a single block within a bigger system was analyzed so far. Going from a zero dimensional scenario to a two dimensional case where the offsets not only of a single block but the displacement patterns caused by a certain event are analyzed will increase the verisimilitude of the detection of periodic earthquake recurrence within an otherwise chaotic seismic record.
DE: 7209 Earthquake dynamics (1242)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7290 Computational seismology
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005