HR: 1340h
AN: S53B-1096    [Abstracts]
TI: Estimation of Seismic Moment Release with Implications for Regional Hazard Assessment
AU: * Zaliapin, I
EM: zal@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AU: * Zaliapin, I
EM: zal@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AU: Kagan, Y
EM: kagan@moho.ess.ucla.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AU: Schoenberg, F
EM: frederic@stat.ucla.edu
AF: Department of Statistics, UCLA, 8125 Math Sciences Bldg. , Los Angeles, CA 90095-1554 United States
AB: Evaluation of regional seismic moment release is an important problem of statistical seismology tightly connected to the seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction. A delicate aspect of this problem is bridging the observed moment release with its geodetic models. Numerous studies have reported dramatic discrepancies between the observed seismic moment and its long-term predictions based on space-born data and tectonic models. We demonstrate how the reported discrepancies can be explained by the heavy-tailed part of the seismic moment distribution. We illustrate our conclusions using the data from an independent study of seismicity of Asia during XX century. We analyze (tapered) Pareto models of moment release and report five very precise methods to approximate the distribution of the cumulative moment from an arbitrary number of earthquakes.
DE: 1209 Tectonic deformation (6924)
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 3270 Time series analysis (1872, 4277, 4475)
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005