HR: 16:45h
AN: SH14A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Interplanetary Shock Forecasting With Suprathermal Ions: Solar Cycle Dependence
AU: * Posner, A
EM: aposner@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute Space Science and Engineering Division, 6220 Culebra Rd, San Antonio, TX 78238-5166 United States
AU: Allegrini, F
EM: fallegrini@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute Space Science and Engineering Division, 6220 Culebra Rd, San Antonio, TX 78238-5166 United States
AU: Desai, M I
EM: mdesai@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute Space Science and Engineering Division, 6220 Culebra Rd, San Antonio, TX 78238-5166 United States
AU: Ho, G C
EM: george.ho@jhuapl.edu
AF: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723-6099 United States
AU: Livi, S
EM: stefano.livi@jhuapl.edu
AF: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723-6099 United States
AU: McComas, D J
EM: dmccomas@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute Space Science and Engineering Division, 6220 Culebra Rd, San Antonio, TX 78238-5166 United States
AB: Recently, we established a new method of forecasting the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at Earth with suprathermal ions. This method requires measurement of specific characteristics of ions in the ~ 5-150 keV/amu kinetic energy range. Among these IP foreshock tracers are (a) elevated median energy (>25 keV/amu); (b) anomalous spectra in the range 10-30 keV/amu; and (c) outward (anti-sunward) pointing anisotropy. Employing a subset of this forecasting method, we predicted the arrival of 68% of interplanetary shocks at Earth during the rising phase of solar cycle 23 with a standard suprathermal particle detector. These earlier tests showed the following promising results: (a) substantially longer lead times on the order of ~ 24 hours in forecasting and (b) preferential identification of stronger forward shocks with higher than average potential for causing geomagnetic disturbances in their wake. In this paper, we will perform additional tests using Wind Suprathermal Ion Composition Spectrometer (STICS) measurements during a representative sample of the full solar cycle and evaluate the impact on the requirements for improving the forecasting method and developing future IP shock monitoring instrumentation, i.e., the Pre-Shock Suprathermal Ion Monitor (PreSTIM).
DE: 2101 Coronal mass ejections (7513)
DE: 2114 Energetic particles (7514)
DE: 2162 Solar cycle variations (7536)
DE: 2194 Instruments and techniques
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005