HR: 1340h
AN: SH23A-0328    [Abstracts]
TI: Metrics Studies of the Center for Integrated Spaceweather Modeling Solar Wind Models: An Eight Year Comparison of CORHEL and WSA Predictions with Wind and ACE Observations
AU: * Spence, H E
EM: spence@bu.edu
AF: Boston University Center for Space Physics, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Owens, M J
EM: mjowens@bu.edu
AF: Boston University Center for Space Physics, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Arge, C N
EM: nick.arge@hanscom.af.mil
AF: AFRL/VSBXS, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731 United States
AB: Metrics and model validation represent two key elements upon which the success of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) hinges. The routine calculation of important operationally- and scientifically-motivated metrics permits us to measure and track objectively the ability of coupled CISM models to predict essential space weather quantities. One primary CISM objective is to predict solar wind conditions, both quasi-steady and transient, arriving at the Earth. CISM uses both semi-empirical [Wang-Sheeley-Arge or WSA; Arge and Pizzo (2000)] and MHD-based models [e.g., CORHEL; Odstrcil et al. (2004)] for this prediction. In this paper we use eight years of model outputs compared with in situ Wind and ACE observations at the L1 point to compute individual model prediction efficiencies and skill scores of the physics-based model against the empirical baseline model. Various quantitative model metrics will be discussed, including the event-based technique for identifying high speed enhancements developed recently by Owens et al. (2005).
DE: 2164 Solar wind plasma
DE: 7959 Models
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005