HR: 1340h
AN: SM13A-0316    [Abstracts]
TI: Modeling of Wait Times Between Storm-Level Kp Occurrences
AU: * Remick, K J
EM: kremick@usgs.gov
AF: United States Geological Survey, Box 25046 MS966 Federal Center, Denver, CO 80227 United States
AU: Love, J J
EM: jlove@usgs.gov
AF: United States Geological Survey, Box 25046 MS966 Federal Center, Denver, CO 80227 United States
AB: We consider the modeling of the occurrence in time of large Kp magnetic storms as a Poisson process; testing whether or not relatively rare, large Kp events can be considered to arise from a stochastic, sequential, and memoryless process. For a Poisson process, the wait times between successive events occur statistically with an exponential density function. If we define these wait-time durations straightforwardly, by simply calculating the differences between times when Kp exceeds a certain value, such as Kp>=6, then we find the wait-time distribution is not exponential. Within a large storm, there often are several intervals with large Kp values. Their occurrence in time is not memoryless; they are not independent of each other, and are, in fact, clumped together in time. If we filter out same-storm large Kp occurrences, the resulting wait times are very nearly exponentially distributed and the storm arrival process might, therefore, be characterized as Poisson. A number of fittings are performed for different Kp thresholds, their statistical significances are given, and some remaining issues are discussed.
DE: 7833 Mathematical and numerical techniques (0500, 3200)
DE: 7857 Stochastic phenomena (3235, 3265, 4475)
DE: 7924 Forecasting (2722)
DE: 7954 Magnetic storms (2788)
DE: 7959 Models
SC: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005