HR: 13:55h
AN: SM33E-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: NARMAX Approach to the Magnetopsheric System.
AU: * Balikhin, M A
EM: m.balikhin@sheffield.ac.uk
AF: ACSE University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD United Kingdom
AU: Billings, S A
EM: s.a.billings@heffield.ac.uk
AF: ACSE University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD United Kingdom
AU: Zhu, D
EM: d.zhu@sheffield.ac.uk
AF: ACSE University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD United Kingdom
AU: Wing, S
EM: simon.wing@jhuapl.edu
AF: Applied Physics Lab., 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd, Laurel, MD MD 20723-6 United States
AB: To derive a mathematical description of the magnetospheric dynamics from first principles the models of all processes involved should be conjugated into a global model. This goal will eventually be accomplished. However the present level of understanding of the processes involved means that this will not happen in the foreseeable future. An alternative approach is to dynamics use system identification. In this paper recent results of NARMAX modelling (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs). One of the most important features of NARMAX models is that model terms are physically interpretable. Single and multi input, discrete and continuous time models of the evolution of Dst, derived using NARMAX methodology, are presented and reviewed.
DE: 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964)
DE: 2788 Magnetic storms and substorms (7954)
SC: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005