HR: 09:45h
AN: SM51D-08    [Abstracts]
TI: Comparing Relativistic Electron Prediction Models at Geosynchronous
AU: Ginet, G
EM: Gregory.Ginet@hanscom.af.mil
AF: AFRL, 29 Randolph Rd, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731 United States
AU: * Perry, K
EM: kara.perry.ctr@hanscom.af.mil
AF: Boston College, St. Clement's Hall 140 Commonwealth Ave., Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 United States
AU: Onsager, T
EM: terry.onsager@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/SEC, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Li, X
EM: lix@paracel.colorado.edu
AF: University of Colorado/LASP, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Rigler, E J
EM: jrigler@hao.ucar.edu
AF: HAO/NCAR, 3080 Center Green, Boulder, CO 80301 United States
AB: Extended periods of relativistic electron intensity at geosynchronous orbit can create severe deep-charging hazards for satellites. Several models have been developed over the last fifteen years to predict electron flux levels using solar wind and geomagnetic indexes as inputs. We analyze four of these models, USAF and NOAA/Space Environment Center after Baker et al. [1990], Koons and Gorney [1991], Li [2004], and Rigler et al. [2004], as a function of the solar cycle to determine which ones give the best 1, 2 and 3 day forecasts. The predictions of each model are compared to the standard GOES > 2 MeV electron flux and the performance measured by calculating skill scores in which the subject forecast is compared to a persistence reference forecast. Preliminary results will be presented.
DE: 2720 Energetic particles: trapped
DE: 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964)
DE: 2774 Radiation belts
DE: 7924 Forecasting (2722)
DE: 7959 Models
SC: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005