HR: 16:00h
AN: U24A-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Variability and Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity
AU: * Emanuel, K
EM: emanuel@texmex.mit.edu
AB: Tropical cyclone activity is conventionally measured by annual storm frequency in the major world ocean basins. Beginning in about 1970, satellites have detected virtually every instance of tropical cyclones of tropical storm strength or greater, and in the intervening 35 years there is no detectable trend in global storm frequency. On the other hand, a measure of total energy generation by such storms shows a marked upward trend beginning in the 1970s, highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature. I will discuss the observational evidence for such a trend and present new findings based on modeling large numbers of storms, both in the current climate and in a warmer world.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Union [U]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005