HR: 14:40h
AN: U33B-04 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Understanding the Impacts of Changes in Freshwater on Human Communities and Cultures Using Multi Agent Systems Modeling
AU: * Kliskey, A D
EM: afadk@uaa.alaska.edu
AF: Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, 3211 Providence Dr., University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508 United States
AU: Alessa, L
EM: afla@uaa.alaska.edu
AF: Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, 3211 Providence Dr., University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508 United States
AU: Alessa, L
EM: afla@uaa.alaska.edu
AF: Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775
AU: White, D M
EM: ffdmw@uaf.edu
AF: Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775
AB: The Arctic system is a dynamic and functional mosaic where critical hotspots provide foci for coupled social-ecological processes. Large and growing collections of biophysical data and advances in agent-based models (ABMs) are rapidly enabling researchers and practitioners to acquire greater understanding of potential impacts at finer scales. Critical to the development and application of ABMs is the information provided regarding the agents themselves (i.e., humans). We know very little about how human perception drives resource-use patterns and thus can not accurately construct multi-agent systems despite the advances in ABMs. In other words, models are not magic, they rely on informed programming: garbage in=garbage out without a thorough understanding of sociocultural drivers that govern human actions toward a specific resource attractor, in this case, freshwater. Without this understanding, our ability to articulate and comprehend how societal adaptation to change is governed is limited to assumptions and broader scale, equation-based modeling. Here, we provide a innovative and unique methodology which allows the use of ABMs to develop meaningful predictors of future impacts to human communities under conditions of altered hydrological regimes. Finally, we present data which demonstrate that agent types, networks and their social construction of the biophysical space may ultimately determine their ability to cope with change.
UR: http://ram.uaa.alaska.edu
DE: 1225 Global change from geodesy (1222, 1622, 1630, 1641, 1645, 4556)
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
DE: 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets (1218, 1655)
SC: Union [U]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005