HR: 14:15h
AN: U43C-03 [Abstracts]
TI: Using Websites to Convey Scientific Uncertainties for Volcanic Processes and Potential
Hazards
AU: * Venezky, D Y
EM: dvenezky@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd MS910, Menlo Park, CA 94025
AU: Lowenstern, J B
EM: jlwnstrn@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd MS910, Menlo Park, CA 94025
AU: Hill, D P
EM: hill@usgs.gov
AF: U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd MS910, Menlo Park, CA 94025
AB:
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) and Long Valley Observatory (LVO) websites have greatly increased the public's
awareness and access to information about scientific uncertainties for volcanic processes by communicating at multiple levels
of understanding and varied levels of detail. Our websites serve a broad audience ranging from visitors unaware of the
calderas, to lay volcano enthusiasts, to scientists, federal agencies, and emergency managers. Both Yellowstone and Long
Valley are highly visited tourist attractions with histories of caldera-forming eruptions large enough to alter global
climate temporarily. Although it is much more likely that future activity would be on a small scale at either volcano, we are
constantly posed questions about low-probability, high-impact events such as the caldera-forming eruption depicted in the
recent BBC/Discovery movie, "Supervolcano".
YVO and LVO website objectives include: providing monitoring data, explaining the likelihood of future events, summarizing
research results, helping media provide reliable information, and expanding on information presented by the media. Providing
detailed current information is a crucial website component as the public often searches online to augment information gained
from often cryptic pronouncements by the media. In May 2005, for example, YVO saw an order of magnitude increase in page
requests on the day MSNBC ran the misleading headline, "Yellowstone eruption threat high." The headline referred not to
current events but a general rating of Yellowstone as one of 37 "high threat" volcanoes in the USGS National Volcano Early
Warning System report. As websites become a more dominant source of information, we continuously revise our communication
plans to make the most of this evolving medium.
Because the internet gives equal access to all information providers, we find ourselves competing with various "doomsday"
websites that sensationalize and distort the current understanding of natural systems. For example, many sites highlight a
miscalculated repose period for caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone and conclude that a catastrophic eruption is
overdue. Recent revisions on the YVO website have discussed how intervals are calculated and why the commonly quoted values
are incorrect. Our aim is to reduce confusion by providing clear, simple explanations that highlight the process by which
scientists reach conclusions and calculate associated uncertainties.
UR: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo
DE: 0815 Informal education
DE: 8419 Volcano monitoring (7280)
DE: 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks
SC: Union [U]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005