HR: 0800h
AN: U51A-0002    [Abstracts]
TI: Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach
AU: * Lerner-Lam, A
EM: lerner@ldeo.columbia.edu
AF: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AU: Chen, R
EM: bchen@ciesin.columbia.edu
AF: Center for Integrated Earth Science Information Network, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964 United States
AU: Dilley, M
EM: maxx.dilley@undp.org
AF: UNDP/BCPR/DRU, International Environment House, Room B-130 11-13 Chemin des Anemones 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, NJ 07670 Switzerland
AB: The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.
UR: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots
DE: 6349 General or miscellaneous
DE: 6699 General or miscellaneous
SC: Union [U]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005