HR: 1340h
AN: A13B-0118    [Abstracts]
TI: Projecting large-scale ecosystem change: A Forest Gap Model to Simulate Dynamics and Patterns of Eastern Eurasian Forests
AU: * Shugart, H H
EM: hhs@virginia.edu
AF: Department of Environmental Sciences, Box 400123 University of Virginia , Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123 United States
AU: Yan, X
EM: yxd@ast590.tea.ac.cn
AF: START Temperate East Asia Regional Research Center (TEA RRC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029 China
AU: Iseav, A S
EM: postmaster@spepl.msk.ru
AF: Centre for Ecological Problems and Productivity of Forests, RAN (CEPL RAS) 84/32, Profsouznaj Str, Moscow, 117810 Russian Federation
AB: Change in the cover of the vast Eurasian super-continent has a potential to interact with the atmosphere with meso- and global-scale climatic consequences. An example of one such change is the potential positive feedback attending a warming-induced greening of the northern boreal zone of Eurasia. The predictions of the surface changes involved with such an interaction involve the development of a continental-scale capability to predict such changes. This presentation will illustrate an approach to this problem with an individual-based simulation model (the forest gap model, FAREAST) that simulates the distribution, composition and dynamics of forests in Eastern Eurasia. Tests of the model are along tall mountains in Northern China and include: 1. Direct species composition comparisons between simulated and observed mature forests at the same locations; 2. Forest type comparisons between simulated and observed forests along altitudinal gradients of several different mountains; 3. Comparison with forest stands in different succession stages of simulated forests. Model comparisons with independent data indicate the FAREAST model is capable of representing many of the broad features of the forests of Northeastern China. After model validation in the Northeast China region, model applications were developed for the forests of the Russian Far East. In simulations at 31 different sites distributed across the entire Russian Far East and including a wide variety of natural forests, the model demonstrates an ability to reproduce observed vegetation pattern. Continental-scale forest cover can be simulated to a relatively realistic degree using a forest gap model with standard representations of individual-plant processes. It appears that such a model, validated relatively locally in this case, in Northeastern China, can then be applied over a much larger region
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
DE: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions
DE: 0400 Biogeosciences
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting