HR: 1340h
AN: A23A-0763    [Abstracts]
TI: Impact of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Indonesia: NO2
AU: * Susandi, A
EM: susandi@dkrz.de
AF: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146 Germany
AU: * Susandi, A
EM: susandi@dkrz.de
AF: Dept. Geophysics and Meteorology Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa No. 10, Bandung, 40132 Indonesia
AB: In this study, we develop scenarios of total air pollution from fossil fuel consumption and its impacts for the 21st century, using an inter-temporal general equilibrium model MERGE. The Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of greenhouse gas reduction policies (MERGE) is used to project energy consumption and production. We use the base scenarios from IPCC (2000). These scenarios assume that no measures are undertaken to control greenhouse gas emissions. We extend the IPCC scenarios with mitigation scenarios, estimating the air pollution impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The MERGE model was extended to analyze emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), their concentrations, impacts on human health, and economic valuation. To estimate of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) impacts on respiratory symptoms, we calculated the NO2 concentration as derived from nitrogen oxide (NOx). In the baseline scenario, the concentrations of NO2 are rising to 2,263 μg/m3 in 2100. If the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries reduce their emissions, respiratory symptoms among adult's associated with NO2 case would reach the highest to 65,741% of adult population cases by the end of century. If all countries reduce their emission in the future, the total health problem cost associated with NO2 will lower 35% of GDP than in the baseline scenario during the century.
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6334 Regional planning
DE: 6620 Science policy
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting