HR: 1340h
AN: A23B-0802    [Abstracts]
TI: Modes of Variability Under Climate Change Scenarios
AU: * Horton, R
EM: rh142@columbia.edu
AF: NASA-GISS, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025
AB: This combined observational and modeling study concerns how patterns of variability including the El Ni¤o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation- North Atlantic Oscillation (AO-NAO), and the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) may change in the coming decades. Possible modifications to these teleconnection patterns, including changes in amplitude, frequency, duration, and spatial pattern, are analyzed. The signature and influence of these teleconnection patterns on regional diagnostics including surface air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional wind, geopotential height, storms, and the fluxes of heat and momentum are also explored. Analytical techniques include correlation and compositing of NCEP reanalysis data from two periods: 1) 1958-1998, and 2) 1979-1998. Model data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM (both an atmosphere only and a coupled version), driven with 1) current and 2) enhanced greenhouse forcing are compared as well.
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3319 General circulation
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting