HR: 08:30h
AN: A31D-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Impacts of Air Pollution on Health in Eastern China: Implications for future air pollution and energy policies
AU: Wang, X
EM: xwang@princeton.edu
AF: Science, Technology and Environmental Policy program, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
AU: * Mauzerall, D
EM: mauzeral@princeton.edu
AF: Science, Technology and Environmental Policy program, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
AB: Our objective is to establish the link between energy consumption and technologies, air pollution and resulting impacts on public health in eastern China. We quantify the impacts that air pollution in the Shandong region of eastern China has on public health in 2000 and quantify the benefits in improved air quality and health that could be obtained by 2020, relative to business-as-usual, through the implementation of new energy technology. We first develop a highly-resolved emission inventory for the year 2000 for the Shandong region of China including emissions from large point, area, mobile and biogenic sources. We use the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE) to process emissions from this inventory for use in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) which we drive with the NCAR/PSU MM5 meso-scale meteorology model. We evaluate the inventory by comparing CMAQ results with available measurements of PM10 and SO2 from air pollution indices (APIs) reported in various Chinese municipalities during 2002-2004. We use epidemiological dose-response functions to quantify health impacts and values of a statistical life (VSL) and years-of-life-lost (YLL) to establish a range for the monetary value of these impacts. To examine health impacts and their monetary value, we focus explicitly on Zaozhuang, a coal-intensive city in the Shandong region of eastern China, and quantify the mortalities and morbidities resulting from air pollutants emitted from this city in 2000, and in 2020 using business-as-usual, best-available control technology, and advanced coal gasification technology scenarios. In all scenarios most health damages arise from exposure to particulate matter. We find that total health damages due to year 2000 anthropogenic emissions from Zaozhuang accounted for 4-10% of its GDP. If all health damages resulting from coal use were internalized in the market price of coal, the year 2000 price would have doubled. With no new air pollution controls implemented between 2000 and 2020, we predict health damages from air pollution exposure will quadruple and account for 8-16% of Zaozhuang's 2020 GDP. End-of-pipe controls could reduce the potential health damages from air pollution by 20% and a coal gasification polygeneration energy system could reduce it by 50% with only 24% penetration. Benefits to public health, of substantial monetary value, could be achieved in eastern China through the use of currently available end-of-pipe controls; with further development, benefits from the use of advanced coal technology could be even larger.
DE: 9320 Asia
DE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis
DE: 0365 Troposphere--composition and chemistry
DE: 0368 Troposphere--constituent transport and chemistry
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting