HR: 0800h
AN: A41A-0020    [Abstracts]
TI: A Particulate Matter Air Quality Forecast Modeling System for the Northeast U.S. -Comparisons with July 2001 and January-February 2004 EPA Supersite Field Intensive Data
AU: * Cai, C
EM: chenxia@asrc.cestm.albany.edu
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, #251 Fuller Road ASRC, Albany, NY 12203
AU: Hogrefe, C
EM: chogrefe@air.dec.state.ny.us
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, #251 Fuller Road ASRC, Albany, NY 12203
AU: Demerjian, K
EM: kld@asrc.cestm.albany.edu
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, #251 Fuller Road ASRC, Albany, NY 12203
AB: An air quality forecast modeling system (AQFMS), which has run reliable 24-hr oxidant air quality forecasts for the Northeast United States for over two years, has been further developed to consider the prediction of PM air quality in the region. The AQFMS was designed to operate with forecasted meteorological fields from either of two mesoscale meteorological models, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 or the University of Athens­_ ETA-SKIRON meteorological model. The meteorological fields are used to drive the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), a photochemical air quality simulation model. This prototype system has been upgraded to incorporated primary particulate emissions and rudimentary secondary formation mechanism for sulfate, nitrate and organic particulate matter since the beginning of year 2004. Archived meteorological forecasts from ETA-SKIRON, generated as part of the PMTACS-NY Supersite Summer 2001 Field Intensive, have been used to re-run the forecasts with the modified chemical mechanical mechanism within the CAMx4 model and the updated emissions generated by the SMOKE emission model based on EPA­_s National Emission Inventory 1999(NEI99) and Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS version2). Preliminary assessment of the PM air quality forecast from summer 2001 rerun and the forecast from January-February 2004 are presented. The forecasted PM2.5 total mass and the speciation for the northeast and New York metropolitan areas for the two seasons are compared with measurements performed during the EPA Summer 2001 and January-February 2004 Supersite intensive field campaigns to assess the performance of this modeling system in predicting particulate matter for different seasons and the uncertainties therein.
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801)
DE: 0360 Transmission and scattering of radiation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting