HR: 14:40h
AN: A43D-05 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Trend detection in atmospheric data: Ozone Recovery
AU: * Weatherhead, E C
EM: betsy.weatherhead@cires.colorado.edu
AF: U. Colorado CIRES, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Salawitch, R
EM: rjs@caesar.jpl.nasa.gov
AF: NASA-JPL, 4800 East Oak Grove Drive M/S 183-601 Pasadena, California 91109, Pasadena, CA 91109 United States
AB: The levels of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere have begun to decrease, suggesting that early signs of ozone recovery in the stratosphere should soon be observed. Detecting changes in environmental parameters can be difficult, however, requiring that observing systems are designed appropriately and that statistical approaches incorporate what we currently understand about the measurements. Before monitoring even begins, the observing system can be designed to assure that parameters most responsive to environmental change are measured with adequate spatial resolution, temporal sampling, and instrument accuracy. This foresight in designing the observing system is particularly important because atmospheric responses to various forcings often show complicated patterns of change, which vary by altitude and region as well as with time. Ozone, for example, has experienced the greatest depletion in the upper and lower stratosphere as well as over the polar regions, particularly in the springtime. Exploring signatures of recovery as a function of altitude, latitude, and season can help determine whether observed changes are due to decreases in ozone- depleting substances, are part of natural variability, or are related to changes in stratospheric transport and composition due to climate change. Adequate temporal and spatial coverage combined with high accuracy can aid in attributing the observed changes and in assessing whether apparent trends or changes in trends provide clear and compelling evidence of ozone recovery.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 0340 Middle atmosphere--composition and chemistry
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting